Aptitude change assessment of coffee cultivation in Colombia by variation in future climate scenarios. Valoración del cambio de aptitud del cultivo de café en Colombia, por variación en los escenarios climáticos futuros.

This study aims to identify how Colombian coffee regions would be changing their current aptitude under the A2 2030s and 2050s scenarios, reported in the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-IPCC. Climatic bioindicators, which were the predictors of the Maxent modeling were made using current and future climate data. The Maxent probability distribution was defined in the Colombian coffee region, the climate aptitude corresponded to the level of presence of certain climatic characteristics that satisfactorily allow the cultivation of coffee. The tendency is to increase the expression of Average Temperature towards the future, the minimum amount of expected average increase is 0.8 and 1.6 ° C for 2030 and 2050, respectively. Major changes were identified in the North of Colombia, while areas with smaller change values correspond to the South of Colombia. The change in precipitation shows that the Caribbean and the Santander areas have a tendency to decrease from 1.6% to 3.5% (30 to 64 mm). Several areas of lower aptitude in the current and future scenario are observed in the foothills of the great mountains, with the influence of large river basins such as the Magdalena, Cauca, Catatumbo, Sogamoso, Guaviare, Meta and Patía rivers.