Agroclimatic risk for the Colombian coffee-growing region: A method for regionalizing climate variability Riesgo agroclimático para zona cafetera colombiana : Método para regionalizar la variabilidad climática

In this study, risk is considered as the product of the threat caused by climate variability and the vulnerability of the coffee production system to reduce productivity due to water deficit and excess. The source of climate variability analyzed in this study is the annual variability caused by El Niño and La Niña events. Vulnerability is estimated from the calculation of the Soil Humidity Index (IHS) in productive coffee plantations based on the integration of edaphic, crop and atmospheric variables that allow defining the relationship that exists between the behavior of soil humidity and productivity variables of the coffee crop. The application of the methodology was carried out for the department of Quindío because it has adequate coverage in the meteorological network and geo-referenced soil units. The methodology allows historical analysis for regionalization or zoning purposes and dynamic analysis for decision making and adjustments to production systems. The final product is a web-based system that allows each user to know the risk level of their production system.